{"id":10682,"date":"2026-08-29T23:42:53","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T15:42:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/q8bbzjnpm5.wpdns.site\/?p=10682"},"modified":"2026-08-29T23:42:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T15:42:53","slug":"the-two-reports-provide-insights-into-the-current-and-future-development-of-china-s-energy-and-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/subian-electric.com\/pt\/news\/the-two-reports-provide-insights-into-the-current-and-future-development-of-china-s-energy-and-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Os dois relat\u00f3rios fornecem insights sobre o desenvolvimento atual e futuro do setor de energia e eletricidade da China"},"content":{"rendered":"

An individual in a manager position dealing with procurement in Lagos faces an important decision regarding signing an agreement for distribution transformers that lasts for the next two years. Moreover, a professional from Jakarta makes similar decision about purchasing a substation equipment. Both employees receive the same piece of information that China is increasing its energy production operations and large orders for manufacturing transformers have already started to appear as lead times.
\nIn order to distinguish relevant information from the unnecessary noise, CEC (China Electricity Council) provides the audience with two important documents relating to electrical energy developments in China.<\/p>\n

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the papers issued by the CEC, including the China Electric Power Industry Annual Development Report 2024 and the 2023-2024 National Electricity Supply-Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report and focuses on the main numbers that are crucial for making the purchasing decisions. In the report, the audience will find the information on the installed capacity and the generation structure of the electricity, the forecasts issued by the CEC in 2024, the infrastructure investments made by China and the relevant meaning of all of these figures for the price and delivery terms.<\/p>\n

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The Two Reports: What They Are and Who Publishes Them<\/h2>\n

Each year, CEC, the largest power industry association in China, publishes two key reports. The first one, the China Electric Power Industry Annual Development Report, is released around the middle of the year. It summarizes the previous year\u2019s statistics, including installed and generation capacities, length of power lines, capacity of substations, and investment flows. The most recent report for 2024 was published in July 2024, containing reliable information for 2023.<\/p>\n

The second report is the National Electricity Supply-Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report. This report is published each January and covers predictions made for the upcoming years. The most recent report was released on 30th January 2024 and contained predictions concerning electricity consumption, adding capacity, and the supply-demand balance for the months of summer and winter. When both reports are analyzed together, they provide detailed accounting and future forecasts which a buyer needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Report<\/th>\nPublisher & Date<\/th>\nCovers<\/th>\nBest Used For<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
China Electric Power Industry Annual Development Report 2024<\/td>\nCEC, July 2024<\/td>\nFull-year 2023 capacity, generation, grid, investment<\/td>\nHistorical benchmarks, trend confirmation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2023-2024 National Electricity Supply-Demand Forecast Report<\/td>\nCEC, January 2024<\/td>\n2023 review + 2024 consumption, capacity, balance<\/td>\nForward planning, demand sizing<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

2023 Installed Capacity: 2.9 TW and Counting<\/h2>\n

The main number highlighted in the annual report is that of installed generation capacity of 2,922 GW at the close of 2023, an increase of 14.0% from the previous year. This amounts to approximately 2.1 kW for every person in China; this is the first time that the installed generating capacity of China has crossed the threshold of 2 kW\/person. For the sake of comparison, the increase in installed capacity throughout the world, excluding China, was much smaller, and this is one of the reasons why Chinese transformer manufacturers accounted for a majority of the manufacturing output globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Generation Type<\/th>\nInstalled Capacity (end-2023)<\/th>\nYear-on-Year<\/th>\nShare of Total<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Total<\/td>\n2,922 GW<\/td>\n+14.0%<\/td>\n100%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thermal (incl. coal)<\/td>\n1,391 GW<\/td>\n+4.2%<\/td>\n47.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
– Coal<\/td>\n1,165 GW<\/td>\n+3.4%<\/td>\n39.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hydropower<\/td>\n422 GW<\/td>\n+2.0%<\/td>\n14.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wind (grid-connected)<\/td>\n441 GW<\/td>\n+20.7%<\/td>\n15.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Solar PV (grid-connected)<\/td>\n610 GW<\/td>\n+55.5%<\/td>\n20.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nuclear<\/td>\n57 GW<\/td>\n+2.4%<\/td>\n1.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

It is important to focus on two statistics. With the combination of solar and wind, they reached 1,050 GW, exceeding 1 TW. The number of solar systems has shown an increase of 217 GW in one year. All of the above wind and solar stations need step-up transformers and all of their connections need feeder switchgear, that\u2019s why we may use CEC’s equipment demand indicators as a measure of the overall demand for transformer orders worldwide.<\/p>\n

Generation Mix: Wind and Solar Deliver the Growth<\/h2>\n

Installed capacity tells you what China is building; generation tells you what the system actually delivers. Total generation in 2023 was 9,456 TWh, up 6.9%, and the shape of that growth is the story of the energy transition in one table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Generation Type<\/th>\nOutput 2023 (TWh)<\/th>\nYear-on-Year<\/th>\nShare of Total<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Total<\/td>\n9,456<\/td>\n+6.9%<\/td>\n100%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thermal<\/td>\n6,266<\/td>\n+6.4%<\/td>\n66.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hydropower<\/td>\n1,286<\/td>\n-4.9%<\/td>\n13.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wind<\/td>\n886<\/td>\n+16.2%<\/td>\n9.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Solar<\/td>\n584<\/td>\n+36.7%<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nuclear<\/td>\n435<\/td>\n+4.1%<\/td>\n4.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The combination of wind and solar power has increased the total energy output by 280 TWh which is 46.1% of the total increase in energy generation. However, thermal still accounts for 66% of the overall power production in the country since coal continues to be a reliable and available source of energy. This unique situation of growth in renewable energy while relying on coal provides the explanation why China is using both modern transformers working on renewable sources of energy and traditional thermal power facilities at the same time.<\/p>\n

Non-Fossil Share Crosses 50%: A Structural Shift<\/h2>\n

For the first time in 2023, non-fossil fuels accounted for more than 50% of China’s total installed capacity at 53.9%. CEC believes that this is connected to the goal of peak carbon emission before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. In terms of demand for capacity, the explanation is clear: a one percent growth of power from non-fossil sources means more capacity of the grid interconnections, more reactive power compensation, and more energy storage than equivalent growth of conventional energy would mean.<\/p>\n

The process of better understanding the situation is helped by two additional points. First, coal share of total installed capacity decreased to 39.9%. Secondly, in 2023, solar plants were used for just 1286 hours, which indicates an increase of curtailment pressures in some areas of China. Given the above-mentioned facts, the CEC has decided to focus investments into grid connections for distribution lines while around 55% of expenditures on power grids were allocated in the field of 110 kV and below networks.<\/p>\n

The 2024 Forecast: 3.25 TW by Year-End<\/h2>\n

The forecast report published in January 2024 anticipated that China will achieve more than 3,250 GW in terms of installed energy capacity by the end of 2024, representing a 12% increase, while more than 300 GW of new projects will also be commissioned \u2013 more than 200 GW of which will be renewable resources. The projection shows that the share of non-fossil energy in the energy mix is expected to reach approximately 57%, wind energy to stand at 530 GW, while solar energy will be accomplishing the 780 GW mark, when both sources will be able to surpass the total capacity of coal energies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
M\u00e9trica<\/th>\n2023 Actual<\/th>\n2024 Forecast (CEC)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Total installed capacity<\/td>\n2,922 GW<\/td>\n~3,250 GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Non-fossil share<\/td>\n53.9%<\/td>\n~57%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wind installed<\/td>\n441 GW<\/td>\n~530 GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Solar installed<\/td>\n610 GW<\/td>\n~780 GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Electricity consumption<\/td>\n9.22 trillion kWh<\/td>\n~9.8 trillion kWh (+6%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Peak load<\/td>\n1.345 billion kW<\/td>\n~1.45 billion kW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The important data for purchasers of equipment is the energy consumption, which amounted to roughly 9.8 trillion kWh, an increase of 6%. This growth has been linked to high-tech manufacturing industries, EV charging facilities (which have grown by 78.1% year-on-year), and solar power or battery manufacturing plants. Therefore, if energy consumption rises by 6%, then the growth in distribution capacity should not be less than that, and the order book for transformers should include that growth in capacity.<\/p>\n

Grid Investment and the Transformer Demand Engine<\/h2>\n

Both reports concur on the acceleration of grid investments. In 2023, major power companies collectively invested RMB 1,550.2 billion, an increase of 24.7%. Power generation investments were RMB 1,022.5 billion, while grid construction investments were RMB 527.7 billion, an increase of 5.4%. The transmission infrastructure followed the trends: 919,667 km of lines with voltage of 220 kV and above and 5,424 GVA transformer capacity with the voltage of 220 kV and above, the latter increasing by 5.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Grid Metric (end-2023)<\/th>\nValor<\/th>\nYear-on-Year<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
220 kV+ transmission lines<\/td>\n919,667 km<\/td>\n+4.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
220 kV+ transformer capacity<\/td>\n5,424 GVA<\/td>\n+5.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cross-region power transfer<\/td>\n849.7 TWh<\/td>\n+9.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Grid construction investment<\/td>\nRMB 527.7 billion<\/td>\n+5.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of grid spend at 110 kV and below<\/td>\n55%<\/td>\n\u2013<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The 5.7% increase in the transformer capacity of 220 kV and above means a clear signal to the buyers of heavyweight transformers. The 55% of the weighting in favor of 110 kV and below signifies the demand for the distribution transformers. Investments in the distribution sector in the utility business in China are high to integrate distributed solar and electrical vehicle charging loads and in this segment there is still manufacturing capacity available.<\/p>\n

What These Numbers Mean for Transformer Buyers<\/h2>\n

The reports analyzed from a procurement viewpoint yield five key conclusions:<\/p>\n

Continued high demand until 2025. It is estimated that demand in 2024 will exceed 300 GW of installed capacity, meaning good news for continuous production of step-up transformers, medium-voltage (MV) and low-voltage (LV) switchgear, and equipment for integration of energy storage technologies.
\nDistribution transformers wins in the volume competition. With over 55% of investments targeting grids already built with voltage levels below 110 kV, distribution transformers, mainly units with power from 100 kVA to 2,500 kVA, in both oil-immersed and dry-type versions, are unlikely to experience a decline in demand at least till 2025.
\nCapacity constraints impact large power transformers. With the installed base amounting to 5,424 GVA and expected annual growth at 5.7%, high-voltage transformers have tight productions slots.
\nEnergy storage calls for new specifications. With batteries being integrated into systems, bidirectional power flow requires transformers with new efficiency requirements and better overload characteristics.
\nPrices are characterized by structural rather than cyclical pressure. Combined with copper prices and costs of special steel types, tight order books prevent prices from falling below some levels.<\/p>\n

In order to budget realistically, one should take into consideration current FOB China prices ranging from $2,500 to $5,000 for a 100 kVA oil-immersed distribution transformer, from $8,000 to $15,000 for a 315 kVA unit, and from $15,000 to $30,000 for a 1,000 kVA transformer. Dry-type transformers are priced for 20-35% higher than oil-immersed units, while expected production lead times range from 8 to 16 weeks for a standard transformer and from 20 to 40 weeks for a power transformer with the voltage above 110 kV, depending on a factory load.<\/p>\n

Global Impact: Prices, Lead Times, and Energy Storage<\/h2>\n

China\u2019s production of transformers accounts for about two-thirds of all transformers produced, which ensures that the domestic construction will have great impact on the global market. The marketplace reported that the situation coincided with the data in the publication of CEC including rising prices for grain-oriented silicon steel, full-capacity production lines, and stressed deadlines for big devices.<\/p>\n

As for the second impact on electricity storage system in connection to record growth of solar energy in China, the signs indicate that it is necessary to have a system that would use additional energy in the midday. In turn, all battery energy storage systems have their individual LV and MV interface transformer which should meet the special requirements related to bi-directionality of operations.<\/p>\n

Manufacturers Supplying the Buildout<\/h2>\n

Business enterprises that are benefitting from the demand divide themselves into the usual levels of importance. Companies renowned across the globe as Hitachi Energy, Siemens, and ABB are engaged in manufacturing high-end transformers with high qualifications of tests and expertise in their engineering projects. In the meantime, Schneider Electric is active in the low-voltage transformers and digital networks. Most of the products are manufactured in China, e.g. TBEA, Baoding Tianwei, and China XD Group, whose production is directed to the domestic market and exports and is based on high productivity rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Manufacturer<\/th>\nPontos Fortes<\/th>\nTypical Product Range<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Hitachi Energy<\/td>\nHigh-voltage, HVDC, premium power transformers<\/td>\n40-500 MVA, up to 800 kV class<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Siemens<\/td>\nGlobal service network, digital transformers<\/td>\nDistribution to 500 MVA class<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABB<\/td>\nBroad LV\/MV portfolio, automation integration<\/td>\nDistribution, pad-mounted, dry-type<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Schneider Electric<\/td>\nLV switchgear, EcoStruxure digital platform<\/td>\nDistribution transformers, LV assemblies<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TBEA<\/td>\nLarge power transformers, export volume<\/td>\nUp to 1,000 kV class<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jiangsu Subian Electric Power<\/td>\nIEC 60076-certified, competitive pricing, flexible lead times<\/td>\n50 kVA-40 MVA, oil-immersed and dry-type<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The gap is filled by the mid-tier Chinese producers for those importers who require IEC 60076 certified units and associated test documentation but cannot afford to pay premium prices charged by the leading global players. Jiangsu Subian Electric Power Company is an example of such producer registered in Jiangsu Province, exporting transformers to Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. The company supplies distribution and medium power transformers with clear specifications of components in a time frame of 8-16 weeks.<\/p>\n

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Perguntas Frequentes<\/h2>\n

What were China’s installed capacity and generation in 2023?<\/h3>\n

China ended 2023 with 2,922 GW of installed capacity, up 14.0%, and generated 9,456 TWh of electricity, up 6.9%. Non-fossil capacity reached 53.9% of the total for the first time, and wind plus solar hit 1,050 GW combined. Electricity consumption was 9.22 trillion kWh, up 6.7%.<\/p>\n

How fast is China adding solar and wind capacity?<\/h3>\n

Solar added a record 217 GW in 2023, up 55.5% to 610 GW, while wind grew 20.7% to 441 GW. The CEC expects another 200+ GW of new energy capacity in 2024, taking wind to about 530 GW and solar to about 780 GW by year-end, at which point wind plus solar exceeds coal in installed terms.<\/p>\n

What do these reports mean for transformer prices and lead times?<\/h3>\n

The sustained buildout keeps manufacturing capacity tight. Budget $2,500-$5,000 for a 100 kVA distribution transformer and $15,000-$30,000 for 1,000 kVA FOB China, with 8-16 week lead times for standard units. 110 kV-class power transformers run longer, typically 20-40 weeks, because of crowded high-voltage production slots.<\/p>\n

Why does grid investment matter for energy storage projects?<\/h3>\n

China’s grid operators spent RMB 527.7 billion in 2023, with 55% going to the 110 kV and below distribution network, partly to integrate distributed solar, EV charging (up 78.1%), and battery storage. Storage projects need transformers rated for bidirectional flow, wider tap ranges, and harmonic tolerance, and they are among the fastest-growing procurement categories.<\/p>\n

Is China still expanding coal power?<\/h3>\n

Yes, but slowly. Coal capacity reached 1,165 GW in 2023, up just 3.4%, and its share fell below 40% for the first time. Coal still produced nearly 60% of generation in 2023, so it remains the reliability backbone while non-fossil capacity grows, but every successive year shifts the balance further toward renewables.<\/p>\n

Refer\u00eancias<\/h2>\n